In cash games, 1 chip equals $1—it’s a straightforward equation. But in tournament poker, chip values are dynamic and situational. Even with the same stack size, the value of your chips changes depending on factors like the number of remaining players, payout structure, and current position.
This dynamic is modeled mathematically through the Independent Chip Model (ICM). One of the most important lessons ICM teaches us is: the value of chips is not proportional to their quantity. In this article, we’ll explore why that is, and how you can use ICM understanding to make better decisions and avoid costly mistakes.
What Is ICM (Independent Chip Model)?
The Independent Chip Model (ICM) is a mathematical framework used to calculate a player’s expected value (EV) in a tournament based on their current chip stack.
ICM evaluates the monetary value of a player’s chips, taking into account:
- All remaining players’ stack sizes
- The tournament’s payout structure
The result is an estimation of how much cash your current stack is worth right now—a crucial insight for tournament decision-making.
Chip Value Is Not Linear
In tournaments, having 1,000 chips doesn’t always mean the same thing. For example:
- For a short stack, 1BB (Big Blind) might be the difference between elimination and survival—a lifeline.
- For a chip leader, that same 1BB may have minimal impact—more like disposable income.
This discrepancy is central to ICM theory.
Why Chip Value Is Non-Linear
In ICM, doubling your stack doesn’t mean your equity (expected winnings) doubles.
- If a player with 1,000 chips doubles to 2,000 chips, their ICM EV increases—but not by 2x.
- If that 1,000-chip player busts, the drop in ICM value is disproportionately high compared to a chip leader losing the same amount.
Example Scenario:
- 5 players remain
- Total prize pool: $1,000, paid by rank
- If a short stack busts, the remaining players’ EV increases—just surviving has value.
- If a chip leader gains 1,000 chips, their EV barely increases.
Real Game Impact of ICM
Situation: Bubble Play (6 Players Left, 5 Paid)
- You: Mid Stack (20BB)
- BB: Short Stack (7BB)
- Button (BTN) goes all-in with 15BB
Even if calling would be the correct GTO (Game Theory Optimal) move, ICM suggests folding might be more +EV, as waiting for the short stack to bust can increase your prize equity.
How 1,000 Chips Can Differ in Value
| Player Type | Stack Context | Value of 1,000 Chips |
| Chip Leader | 1,000 out of 100BB | Small (Can afford loss) |
| Short Stack | 1,000 out of 10BB | Extremely high (Survival-critical) |
Practical Example: 3 Players Left
Payout Structure:
- 1st: 50%
- 2nd: 30%
- 3rd: 20%
If Player C (short stack) loses 5,000 chips:
- Their prize equity can drop from $22 to $0—a major loss.
If Player A (chip leader) loses 5,000 chips:
- They likely still make the money—risk is comparatively lower.
ICM-Aware Play: Key Tips
Positive ICM Moves
| Player | Stack | ICM Equity (%) | Prize EV ($) |
| A (Leader) | 50,000 | 45% | $450 |
| B (Mid) | 30,000 | 33% | $330 |
| C (Short) | 20,000 | 22% | $220 |
| Situation | Suggested Action |
| Bubble or Final Table (ICM-sensitive) | Avoid reckless all-ins; survival matters |
| Facing a short stack | Don’t push too hard; let others bust first |
| You’re the short stack | Every chip is vital—push spots must be sharp |
- Let shorter stacks bust before taking marginal risks
- Preserve your stack to increase survival time
Negative ICM Moves
- Short stacks taking high-risk plays too early
- Mid stacks calling coin flips unnecessarily (risking drop in position and equity)
Conclusion
In ICM, chip value is not equal to chip count. The importance of even 1BB can vary greatly depending on your stack size, table dynamics, and payout structure.
Players who blindly shove all-in without understanding ICM often burn their equity. But those who play smart, know when to hold back, and survive crucial ICM spots—they’re the ones who make it to the payout window.