The “bubble phase” in poker tournaments is a pivotal moment—just one step away from guaranteed payouts. The choices you make here can define your tournament success or result in a crushing elimination.
In this article, we break down practical bubble strategies for both short-stacked and big-stacked players, explain the fundamentals of ICM (Independent Chip Model), and provide real hand examples to help you make profitable, low-risk decisions in this high-pressure phase.
What Is the Bubble? (The Edge of the Money)
The bubble refers to the stage in a poker tournament where just one or a few more players need to bust before everyone left secures a payout. It’s when tension runs high and players adjust their styles dramatically—making it a phase of intense psychological warfare.
The Psychology of the Bubble
The bubble isn’t just a technical point in the tournament—it’s a mental battlefield. The fear of missing the money causes players to become cautious and even passive.
- Short stacks: aim to survive just long enough to squeeze into the payouts.
- Big stacks: aim to pressure others and take advantage of their risk aversion.
Understanding this dynamic is key to predicting opponents’ behavior and making optimal decisions.
Typical Behaviors Under Pressure
Short Stack Psychology
- Survival becomes the top priority.
- Difficult to call with marginal hands.
- Often wait for better spots or for others to bust.
Big Stack Psychology
- Try to bust other players to move into the money faster.
- Target weaker or passive players.
- Use position and chip advantage to steal pots frequently.
Short Stack Bubble Strategy: Maximize Survival
As a short stack, your mission is clear: avoid marginal situations and stick to clear push-or-fold decisions. Every orbit you survive increases your chances of cashing.
Push or Fold Only
Avoid limping or small raises. Choose whether to go all-in or fold, based on hand strength, position, and opponent tendencies.
Example Hand: BTN Push with 10BB
- Stack: 10BB
- Position: Button
- Hand: ♠A, ♣8
- BB: 30BB, tight opponent
→ Push is correct. Ace-high is strong enough, and pushing here yields better ICM EV than waiting.
Key Push Factors
- Position: Wider range from CO/BTN.
- Opponent style: Push more against tight players.
- Payout proximity: Closer to the money, more caution needed.
- Stack comparison: Are there shorter stacks left?
Plan your shoves to minimize risk while maintaining maximum fold equity.
Big Stack Bubble Strategy: Apply Maximum Pressure
As a big stack, the bubble is your playground. Cautious players are easy targets, and you can steal blinds or pots without much resistance.
How to Pressure Short Stacks
- Increase raise frequency.
- Use small bets to control pot size.
- Keep calling ranges tight against all-ins.
Short stacks are focused on survival—they’ll often fold to even modest aggression.
Example Hand: Steal from CO
- Stack: 80BB
- Position: CO
- Hand: ♦T, ♦7
- BTN to BB: All tight players with <20BB
→ Raise as a steal. High fold equity, minimal risk.
Tips for Successful Steals
- Use small raise sizes (2–2.2BB).
- C-bet the flop when appropriate.
- Balance your range with bluffs and value.
Avoid predictable aggression, especially against skilled opponents who may respond with resteals.
Understanding ICM: Independent Chip Model Basics
During the bubble, raw chip counts lose meaning. ICM helps evaluate chip value in terms of real money payout potential.
What Is ICM?
ICM (Independent Chip Model) estimates each player’s equity in the prize pool based on their current chip stack.
Why ICM Matters on the Bubble
- Losing 1BB can cost real money in equity.
- Survival often outweighs chip accumulation in terms of tournament EV.
ICM-Based Decision Example
| Player | Stack | ICM Value (%) | Expected Prize Value (from $1,000) |
| A | 60BB | 45% | $450 |
| B | 30BB | 35% | $350 |
| C | 10BB | 20% | $200 |
Even with a strong hand, a short stack must consider:
- Is this all-in truly necessary to survive?
- Are there even shorter stacks that could bust first?
- Is this risk justified by your potential ICM gain?
Making the Right Decisions on the Bubble
To survive the bubble and reach the payouts, ask yourself:
- Does this spot require taking a risk?
- Am I pushing to win or just avoiding busting?
- What are the chances others will bust before me?
- Can I endure the pressure from bigger stacks?
- Is folding the higher EV option here?
Balance aggression with caution, and always frame your decisions in terms of ICM and opponent tendencies, not just hand strength.
Conclusion
Success on the bubble isn’t just about having the best cards—it’s about understanding psychology, stack dynamics, and equity management.
- Short stacks: Focus on survival and push only when justified.
- Big stacks: Take the initiative, apply pressure, and exploit fear.
Mastering the bubble phase can turn a min-cash into a deep run—and maximize your ROI in tournaments.